Groundhog prediction uncertain, but expect more winter, professor says

The recent weather may be spring-like, but it’s still winter and will remain winter, no matter what Punxsutawney Phil predicts Feb. 2, says Dr. Timothy W. Hawkins, associate professor of geography-earth science.     

Hawkins said that the just-ended January was the 17th warmest on record with an average temperature of 33.7 degrees. The month’s high temperature was 65 degrees Jan. 31, but missed the record of 69 degrees  set in 1947.  

He said that rainfall is about 25 percent above average for the year, but the area is suffering from a snowfall deficit of about 44 percent. 

As the nation turns its eyes to Punxutawney for the annual Groundhog Day prediction, Hawkins chuckled at the suggestion that Phil the Groundhog has an innate ability to forecast the length of winter. “I think in terms of the shadow in the morning, the forecast is that it will be cloudy … regardless of what he sees.”    

Hawkins admitted that he’s never done an analysis of Phil’s forecasts over the years, but that whether Phil or any groundhog sees its shadow Feb. 2 is relative to its location in the Commonwealth. “Do it in Erie and the groundhog will most likely never see his shadow. In Philadelphia, he will see his shadow more often,” said Hawkins. 

Overall, he said, the long-range climate forecast is for relatively mild weather with low snowfall amounts. “It is reasonable to think that the weather will stay as the overall climate pattern suggests,” Hawkins said. “But that’s not an absolute forecast. There’s always the opportunity for a big snowfall. It is winter in the northeast after all and it is quite common to get a giant snowfall in March.” 

Punxsutawney began its Groundhog Day celebration nearly 126 years ago. The folklore dictates that if the groundhog does not see its shadow it means an early arrival of spring. A shadow means six more weeks of winter. Winter officially ends March 20, approximately six weeks from now.            

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